FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Spending time in the critical presidential election state of Florida this week, I thought a lot about what Florida and other states did during the 2018 midterm elections, that might give us some hints as to what will happen in those key states in 2020.NIKE Women's Air Max Motion Lw Running Shoe B01K39OFLW 9.5 B(M) US|Soar/Chlorine Blue/White Let’s “brunch” on that this week:
“A Florida Frost?” – Merrell Women's All Out Blaze Hiking Shoe B00D1N0P1M 11 B(M) US|Charcoal/Moss Senate seat long held by former Sen. Bill Nelson (D) Florida. Florida is always so close I’d rate it a toss-up, but I say a slight advantage for Trump in 2020.
“Penn Station Stall” – Right now I would rate Pennsylvania as the best and biggest chance for a Democrat pick up in the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump won the Keystone State in 2016 with 48.2 percent of the vote to 47.5 percent for Hillary Clinton. Eddie Bauer Women's Evanesce Wedge B074Z7THNP 8.5 B(M) US|Driftwood (Brown)The raw margin of victory was just 44,000 votes. Naturalizer Women's Dev Wc Riding Boot B071VYJ4BP 8 2W US|Saddle 200. I predict Pennsylvania leans strongly to go back into the Democrat’s fold in 2020, and if native son Joe Biden is the nominee, he’ll carry the state over Trump in November.
“Ohio High-Low” – Ohio and its 18 Electoral College votes went to Donald Trump in 2016. It’s a state that is the best predictor of all fifty states. Win Ohio and you’re president. The 2018 election produced mixed results. Call it the status quo election. Sen.Merrell Women's Chameleon 7 Limit Waterproof Hiking Boot B077P6FQ6B 10.5 D(M) US|Dusty Olive Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio easily won reelection. On the other hand, Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) Ohio was elected governor, replacing term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R) Ohio. Democrats and Republicans both kept their incumbent seats in the U.S. House and so that balance stays the same. I rate Ohio as clear advantage for Republicans in 2020.
“Badgering Voters” – Miz Mooz Women's Nikita Fashion Boot B06XNW4NQX 40 M EU (9-9.5 US)|Black. Scott Walker (R) Wisconsin, was defeated in a very close race as he sought a third term. But none of Wisconsin’s U.S. House district flipped, so I say Wisconsin leans to Trump in 2020
“Carolina (North) on My Mind” – North Carolina has become a key toss-up state in past few presidential election cycles, after being a solid red state for decades. But 2018 offered some mixed results. Democrats won the governor’s race beating a Republican incumbent. On the other hand, Columbia Women's Peakfreak XCRSN II Xcel Low Outdry Hiking Shoe B01NALA702 6 B(M) US|Black, Intense VioletDemocrats and Republicans each held their incumbent U.S. House seats, with one exception. The ninth district seat remains in a toss-up with a special election set for September 2019, which will get huge national press attention and money. Many will view it as a final litmus test on Trump’s viability in North Carolina and nationally in 2020. Right now, I give the GOP a slight advantage to hold North Carolina, but remember Trump only beat Hillary Clinton here by three percentage points.
“Virginia is NOT for All Lovers!” –The sea of “red” hearts in Virginia has indeed turned “blue.” Between 1952 and 2004, MuckBoots Women's Tack II Tall Equestrian Work Boot B00NV624XQ 7 B(M) US|Black, and in 2018 came within one vote of tying Republicans for control of the House of Delegates, and within one vote of controlling the State Senate. Look for Virginia to stay in the “blue” column in 2020.
“’Auto State’ is Not Automatic” – Heavily involved in the auto industry, Michigan has been a reliable blue-collar Democratic state for decades, but often with a penchant for electing Republican governors. This was the closest margin of victory in any state for Donald Trump as he garnered 47.5 percent of the vote,PUMA Women's Rebel Mid WNS En Pointe Sneaker B071X66G74 7 B(M) US|Peach Beige-peach BeigeSam Edelman Women's Odele Heeled Sandal B06XFSC4LD 5.5 B(M) US|Golden Caramel Suede to 47.27 percent for Hillary Clinton. The difference was just 10,704 votes out of 4.5 million votes cast. Democrats kept a U.S. Senate seat, picked up the Governor’s mansion and flipped two U.S. House seats. I rate the state as leaning to flip back to the Democratic side in 2020.
“Why All of This Matters” – Blue by Betsey Johnson Women's Sb-Zuri Fashion Boot B073211XK5 5.5 B(M) US|Black, North Carolina, Ohio, or Georgia. It’s going to be an uphill fight!.
Who is ahead in your state? Who are people chatting about? Just click the comment button to add your voice to the chorus!
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is the Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations that are providing coverage of the 2020 presidential campaign in West Virginia, its five neighboring states of Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland and Pennsylvania, and most of the Washington, D.C. media market.
© 2019, Mark Curtis Media, LLC
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